Big NFP miss confirms summer easing path for Fed

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The US employment report was terrible, making the rate cut decision a lot easier for Fed officials.  The nonfarm payroll report came in at 75,000 jobs, missing the median estimate by 100,000 and when you factor in the two-month revisions of 75,000 jobs, you get a net zero in May.  If the broader data on the economy continues to deteriorate going forward, we could see odds rise for two rate cuts before the summers over.   The trade war has damaged sentiment and will likely continue drive the recent deceleration in the economy.

The odds for a rate cut at the June 19th meeting almost doubled to 33.2%, while the July 31st meeting sees a 74.6% chance for a cut.  Labor data is lagging, so we might not need to wait for another month of employment data to further cement those odds.  If we don’t see meaningful trade progress by the June 19th FOMC meeting, the Fed has ammunition to pull the trigger on a 25 basis rate point cut.

The dollar got crushed across the board, with declines of 0.4% to the euro, yen, and loonie.

The Dow and S&P futures gave up their earlier gains and are looking at a slightly positive open.

Gold’s bullish momentum is firmly in place and seems like only a matter of time before breaking out higher.

Oil was unfazed by the NFP release and still trading higher on overall risk-on tone and positive comments from the Saudi and Russian oil ministers.